FE CTA Milestone Calculator

Forecasts the fully executed site Clinical Trial Agreement milestone from the date the initial CTA and budget package is sent to the site. The approved country planning baseline reflects the normal country contracting environment. P50 is the committed forecast from that baseline, adjusted only for documented site-specific information. P75 and P90 are modelled risk scenarios using configurable uplifts — they are not observed country percentiles.

1. Forecast inputs

Forecast start date. Use the date the initial CTA and budget package is issued to the site for review.

2. Site-specific forecast adjustments

Add only known site-specific information that is not already reflected in the country baseline. Leave this section unchanged where no exceptional condition is known.

Known institution-specific adjustment

Use only where documented information shows that this institution is expected to differ from the approved country baseline. Applied to P50 before P75 and P90.

Approval gate Date constraint

Confirmed critical-path delays

Day-based, confirmed delays only. Applied to P75 and P90 — never to the baseline or P50.

Confirmed calendar and seasonal contingencies

Apply only where the negotiation or signature window is expected to overlap a material shutdown. Do not add ordinary public holidays here. Applied to P75 and P90.

Management override

Applied to P50 after the institution-specific adjustment, and shown separately in the audit trail.

FE CTA forecast output

P50 — committed forecast
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P75 — risk-adjusted forecast
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P90 — extended forecast
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Forecast ready.
P50 committed forecast P75 risk-adjusted forecast P90 extended forecast

Compare a proposed date with the forecast

Pick a date to compare it with the forecast points.

How this forecast is built

Endpoint: the date the primary site CTA is fully executed. Ancillary agreements, amendments, investigator agreements and team-member agreements are not automatically included.
  • The approved country baseline reflects the normal country contracting environment.
  • Do not add an adjustment merely because a site is public, private, uses wet ink, uses a local template, or requires normal translation.
  • P50 (the committed forecast) changes only through a documented institution-specific adjustment or a management override.
  • Confirmed critical-path delays affect P75 and P90 only.
  • Approval gates are modelled using dates, not percentages.
  • Seasonal contingency is applied only where confirmed relevant to the forecast window.
  • P75 and P90 are modelled risk scenarios using configurable uplifts and confirmed risks.
  • The forecast uses elapsed calendar days. The working-day option only rolls a resulting milestone date forward if it falls on a weekend or a configured holiday.
P50 is the committed forecast derived from the approved country planning baseline and any documented P50 adjustments. P75 and P90 are modelled risk scenarios using configurable uplifts and confirmed risks. They are not observed country percentiles.

Study FE overview

Study FE is the earliest forecast completion among the selected countries. This overview compares country scenarios and does not calculate a probability of which country will complete first.

Earliest P50 committed forecast
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Earliest P75 risk-adjusted forecast
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Earliest P90 extended forecast
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CountryRegionAdj (d) P50P50 date P75P75 date P90P90 date

Assumptions Administrator

These are configurable scenario uplifts applied consistently across countries. They are not calculated from country-specific percentile distributions.

Working-day calendar

Used only to roll a milestone date off a weekend or public holiday. Seasonal shutdowns are handled by the confirmed calendar contingencies, which add days to P75 and P90.

Deviations and calendar Administrator

Critical-path delay categories

Categories offered in the confirmed critical-path delay selector.

Calendar and seasonal contingencies

Default contingency days and the regions each applies to.

Country baselines Administrator

Approved planning baselines in elapsed calendar days. Holiday dates feed only the working-day roll-forward.

Saved scenarios

Stored in the database. Load restores a scenario to the main screen. Scenarios from an earlier model are marked as legacy and cannot be loaded.

SavedRegionCountryP50 committed dateP50P75P90Action

Audit trail

ItemAffectsSelection / rationaleDay impact / date constraint
Standalone editable HTML application. No external libraries, APIs or network requests. Configuration and scenarios are stored in browser localStorage unless exported or imported as JSON. P75 and P90 are modelled risk scenarios, not observed statistical percentiles.